The Summer Slowdown: How Seasons Shape Hashrate Markets

Bitcoin mining, although global in scope, exhibits localized seasonal behaviors. Historically, summer seasonality was shaped by China’s wet and dry seasons. Miners would migrate from the north to Sichuan to capitalize on abundant hydropower. This dynamic faded after China’s 2021 mining ban, but since then another signature has emerged in North America: 4 Coincidental Peaks (4CP) in Texas. 

On-Chain Signals of Summer

Before China’s 2021 mining ban, seasonal shifts in hashrate were driven by a well-known migration cycle: miners would relocate from northern provinces like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia to Sichuan during the wet season between May-October, to take advantage of cheap and abundant hydropower from rainfall and snowmelt. This bi-annual migration often caused temporary hashrate dips and slower block times, visible on-chain through flat or downward difficulty adjustments. 

Since 2022, Texas has become a hotspot for mining, currently home to approximately 17% of global hashrate and playing an outsized role in shaping seasonal dynamics. Between June and September, miners in Texas closely monitor and respond to ERCOT’s Four Coincident Peaks (4CP) — a billing mechanism used to allocate transmission and distribution charges based on customer power demand during the grid’s four highest summer peak hours. While not a demand response program per se, 4CP creates strong economic incentives for large electricity consumers to proactively curtail power usage during expected peak hours, in exchange for a reduction in transmission and distribution charges. These preemptive curtailment events lead to temporary declines in hashrate, which reflect on-chain through slower block times and lower difficulty adjustments, and in hashrate markets through increased hashprice volatility. Much like China’s former wet season migrations, this predictable disruption constitutes a seasonal signature in network-level mining behavior.

This season’s hashrate fluctuations are already leaving a mark. Network difficulty adjusted down twice throughout June: -0.45% on the 14th and -7.48% on the 29th, marking the first back-to-back negative adjustment since July 2024 and the largest in magnitude since the 2021 China mining ban.

These negative adjustments were caused by multi-day stretches of elevated average block time intervals, primarily driven curtailment of mining operations in Texas trying to avoid 4CP charges; although other factors such as heat-induced downtime and potential disturbances from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have had a contribution. 

In fact, 13 out of 30 days for the month of June 2025 averaged block times above the 10 minute target, and during our estimation of likely 4CP hours (18:00 - 02:00 UTC), blocks averaged roughly 51 seconds slower than during non-4CP periods (as of June 30, 2025 UTC 21:00):

To contextualize this historically, we analyzed difficulty adjustments since 2022. The table below compares the average of difficulty adjustments during 4CP months (June - September) vs. non-4CP months throughout 2022-2025, and reveals that 4CP months show a recurring pattern of either slowed growth or outright drops in network difficulty, demonstrating the seasonal disruption:

During 4CP months, average monthly difficulty adjustments are historically flat or negative, averaging +0.53%, compared to all other months of the year, averaging +2.34%. 

As curtailment pressures ease post-summer, difficulty tends to rebound strongly, with October consistently posting some of the highest monthly difficulty gains. This rebound suggests that miners ramp back up as the risk of 4CP charges falls towards the end of September.

How Forward Markets React

These seasonal dynamics ripple into forward hashrate markets. Summer often ushers in a flattening or mild contango in Luxor’s Bitcoin Hashrate Forward curve, especially for June and July tenors. Sellers, anticipating weaker hashrate (i.e., stronger hashprice) due to curtailments, demand higher premiums. 

Luxor’s forward curve reflected this reality. As of June 23, contracts through June - September 2025 were trading at a slight premium to spot, compared to a discount across the rest of the curve:

Similar behavior occurred in 2024, evidence of forward markets pricing in the seasonality.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin network’s hashrate growth slows materially during the summer, primarily due to curtailment in Texas as miners try to avoid 4CP charges. This seasonal slowdown is becoming a reliable signal like its predecessor during China’s hydropower era, offering strategic insight for spot and forward hashrate market participants.

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